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Internet adspend by type 2014-2017(US$ billion)

發佈時間:1/20/2016    來源:ZenithOptimedia   作者:ZenithOptimedia

Internet adspend by type 2014-2017(US$ billion)

Mobile advertising (by which we mean all internet ads delivered to smartphones and tablets, whether display, classified or search, and including in‐app ads) has now truly taken off and is growing six times faster than desktop internet. We forecast mobile advertising to grow by an average of 38.3% a year between 2014 and 2017, driven by the rapid spread of devices and improvements in user experiences. By contrast we forecast desktop internet advertising to grow at an average of 6.7% a year. 

We estimate global expenditure on mobile advertising at US$25.8 billion in 2014, representing 21.1% of internet expenditure and 5.0% of total advertising expenditure (this total excludes a few markets where we don’t have a breakdown by medium). By 2017 we forecast this total to rise to US$68.2 billion, which will be 36.8% of internet expenditure and 11.3% of all expenditure. This means mobile will leapfrog radio, magazines and outdoor to become the world’s fourth‐largest medium by the end of our forecast period, and will be very close to overtaking newspapers.

Since it began in the mid‐1990s, internet advertising has principally risen at the expense of print. Over the last ten years internet advertising has risen from 4% of total global spend in 2004 to 24% in 2014. Meanwhile newspapers’ share of global spend has halved from 30% to 15%, while magazines’ has fallen from 13% to 7%. Internet adspend overtook total adspend on both newspapers and magazines this year. We predict internet advertising will increase its share of the ad market from 23.8% in 2014 to 31.1% in 2017, while newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an average of 2% a year.  

Note that our figures for newspapers and magazines include only advertising in printed editions of these publications, not on their websites, or in tablet editions or mobile apps, all of which are picked up in our internet category.  

Mobile is now the main driver of global adspend growth. We forecast mobile to contribute 51% of all the extra adspend between 2014 and 2017 (again excluding markets where we don’t have a breakdown by medium). Desktop internet is the second largest contributor (accounting for 25% of new ad expenditure), followed by television (24%). The gains made by outdoor, radio and cinema will be cancelled out by the continued decline of newspapers and magazines, which we expect to shrink by a combined US$8 billion over the forecast period.

Television is still by some distance the dominant advertising medium, attracting 40% of spend in 2014. Television offers unparalleled capacity to build reach, and establish brand awareness and associations. We forecast television adspend to grow by an average of 3% a year through to 2017.

Despite this healthy growth, television’s share of global adspend is likely to fall back slightly over the next few years as desktop and mobile internet grow much faster. Television’s market share has grown steadily over the last three and a half decades, from 29.9% of spend in 1980 to 39.6% in 2014. We think it has now peaked, however, and forecast it to fall back slightly to 37.4% in 2017. Marketers are also beginning to move small budgets away from television to online video, which we expect to grow from 1.9% of global adspend in 2014 to 2.8% in 2017. The audiovisual share of the market will therefore fall by only 1.3 percentage points, from 41.3% in 2014 to 40.2% in 2017.


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