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Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecasts

ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 4.9% in 2015, reaching US$545 billion by the end of the year. Our forecast for 2015 is down (by 0.4 percentage points) on our last forecast in September, with small downward revisions across many regions of the world. This indicates a minor but widespread decline in advertiser confidence, related to conflict in Ukraine and weak economic growth at the heart of the Eurozone.

Forecast by leading advertising markets

Despite the rapid growth of the Rising Markets*, the US is still the biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global market. Between 2014 and 2017 we expect the US to contribute 25% of the US$86 billion that will be added to global adspend. After the US, however, the biggest contributors are much younger and more dynamic. China comes second, accounting for 19% of additional ad dollars over this period, followed by Argentina and the UK, accounting for 7% and 5% respectively.

Seven of the ten largest contributors will be Rising Markets, contributing 42% of new adspend over the next three years. Overall, we forecast Rising Markets to contribute 59% of additional ad expenditure between 2014 and 2017, and to increase their share of the global market from 35% to 39%.

China overtook Japan to become the world’s second‐largest ad market in 2014. We expect to see a few more changes at the top over the next three years. In 2016 we expect the UK to overtake Germany to take fourth place, and South Korea to leapfrog over Australia and France to take seventh place. Argentina, which ranked 15th in 2014, will be 10th in 2017, though its growth is currently fuelled by inflation rather than added value.

Global advertising expenditure by medium

The internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance. We estimate it grew 16.9% in 2014, and we forecast an average of 15% annual growth between 2014 and 2017.

Display is the fastest‐growing sub‐category, with 18% annual growth forecast to 2017. Here we include traditional display (such as banners), online video and social media. Improved advertising formats are making internet display more interactive and attention‐grabbing, while programmatic buying is evolving to allow more sophisticated targeting of display audiences ever more efficiently. Measurement agencies are investing in research that should measure consumers’ exposure to traditional display ads more accurately, and track their exposure to video ads across desktop computers, tablets and television screens. Some broadcasters are starting to trade packages that include both online video and television spots; online video is also starting to be sold by programmatic buying, providing advertisers with more control and better value. We forecast online video to grow at 20% a year for the rest of our forecast period. Meanwhile social media has embraced the opportunities offered by the transition to mobile, and is growing at 25% a year.

We expect paid search to grow at an average rate of 14% a year to 2017, driven by continued innovation from the search engines, including the display of richer product information and images within ads, better localisation of search results, and mobile ad enhancements like click‐to‐ call and geo‐targeting. Paid search is also becoming addressable, as platforms give advertisers more control over where, when and to whom their ads are exposed.

Online classified has been subdued since the downturn in 2009; after the initial shift from print to digital, classified publishers have had to compete with new paid‐for and free alternatives for matching buyers and sellers. We forecast average annual growth of 6% for the rest of our forecast period.


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